Stefanik and Lawler Are in a NY Governor’s Race Staredown. Who Will Blink First?

Republican Reps. Elise Stefanik and Mike Lawler are locked in a staring contest over who might launch a formal campaign to challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul in next year’s election.

Both have met privately with local party leaders and headlined fundraisers far from their respective districts as they explore a statewide bid.

Lawler had previously said he would decide by June whether to seek re-election to his competitive seat in the lower Hudson Valley or mount a gubernatorial campaign. Stefanik’s interest blossomed earlier this year after a nomination to serve as U.N. ambassador fell through.

She has more seniority and campaign cash than Lawler. A recent Siena College poll of registered GOP voters showed Stefanik beating Lawler in a hypothetical primary, 35%-18%. Republicans say her toe-dipping in the nascent governor’s race has complicated his plans.

“I think everybody is waiting to see what Elise does,” said U.S. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, a Staten Island Republican.

Lawler’s allies said he was still doing his due diligence, including reviewing fresh polling data and talking with donors.

“My decision was delayed by the bill and what’s going on in the Middle East,” Lawler said in a brief interview, referencing President Donald Trump’s tax and spending megabill and the U.S. airstrikes on Iran. “I’ll be making an announcement in short order.”

Stefanik, who represents the North Country, aims to make a decision after the general elections in November, according to Republicans familiar with her thinking. But she has recently told party leaders – who have made it clear to Lawler – that she would announce a bid if he did, the people said. Stefanik has said Zohran Mamdani’s victory in New York City’s  Democratic mayoral primary makes a gubernatorial run more likely, according to the people.

“It’s a matter of when, not if,” Stefanik said at a recent rally in Erie County, according to attendees.

Michael Kracker, who chairs the county’s Republican committee, said Lawler has also visited in recent months.

“What we have in the Republican Party is a glut of talent that’s interested in running for governor in 2026 because Kathy Hochul has been a disaster and Lee Zeldin showed us in 2022 that there’s a path for winning,” said Kracker, referring to Zeldin’s closer-than-expected 54%-46% loss.

Republican analysts said Lawler has a better chance of appealing to moderate voters than Stefanik, who is a close Trump ally. The June Siena poll showed Hochul at least 20 points ahead of either Lawler or Stefanik, but it showed Lawler running a closer race.

Kracker said he was waiting for Trump to weigh in. The former New York real estate developer endorsed Lawler in May – for re-election to his current seat.

That won’t be easy. Six Democratic candidates have lined up to challenge him, and both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried his district. Democrats attacked Lawler for his support of the Trump-backed tax and spending bill, which passed last week.

The bill would cut billions of dollars in Medicaid funding to New York, according to health care associations. Lawler previously said he wouldn’t support legislation that reduced Medicaid benefits or services. He said the legislation prevented “the single largest tax hike in American history and put more money back in the pockets of Americans.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee unveiled digital attack ads in the district this week.

“Vulnerable House Republicans’ incredibly cruel vote to jeopardize hospitals in their districts and across America is going to cost them their jobs and the majority,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said.

This column originally appeared in The Politics Brief, the weekly Gothamist newsletter on the people, power and policies that shape New Yorkers’ lives.

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Image: Elise Stefanik (Credit: U.S. House)